Zillow vs. Reality: Pasco Zestimates®

Between January 16, 2019, and June 14, 2019, we recorded 136 home sales in Pasco. The data below reflect all Pasco home sales that we tracked.

Median Error Rate

Median error rate is the primary metric that Zillow uses to gauge the accuracy of Zestimates®. In late January 2019, Zillow said its median error rate nationwide is 4.5 percent. That means half of all Zestimates® are within 4.5 percent of the actual sales price.

Zestimates® in Pasco are more accurate than they are across the Tri-Cities as a whole, and even more accurate than in Seattle. Based on our research, the median error rate of Zestimates® in Pasco is 2 percent. In other words, half of the Zestimates® in Pasco are wrong by more than 2 percent of the actual selling price and half are wrong by less than 2 percent.

For comparison, our research shows the median Zestimate® error rate across the whole Tri-Cities is 5.6 percent. Seattle’s median error rate is 2.2 percent and Portland’s is 1.5 percent, according to Zillow’s own tracking.

Are Pasco Zestimates® Too High or Too Low?

In Pasco, Zestimates® are usually higher than the actual sales price. Of our 136 homes tracked, the Zestimates® of 81 homes (60%) were higher than the sales price. The Zestimates® of 55 homes (40%) were lower than the actual sales price. This is more balanced than the Zestimates® across the Tri-Cities as a whole.

Range of Zestimate® Inaccuracies

On its website, Zillow measures how many Zestimates® are more than 5, 10 and 20 percent wrong. We’ve done the same thing with our Pasco data.

5 Percent Wrong

19 percent of all Pasco Zestimates® were off by 5 percent or more.

10 Percent Wrong

7 percent of all Pasco Zestimates® were at least 10 percent off.

20 Percent Wrong

2 percent of all Pasco Zestimates® were at least 20 percent off.

Zestimate® Accuracy & Inaccuracy in Dollars

We can also look at the accuracy/inaccuracy of Zestimates® in terms of how many dollars they were off when compared to the actual sales price.

• 1 home (0.7 percent) had a Zestimate® that was at least $50,000 off.
• 1 home (0.7 percent) had a Zestimate® that was at least $75,000 off.
• 0 homes had a Zestimate® that was wrong by $100,000 or more.

On the flip side:

• 68 homes (50 percent) sold with a Zestimate® that was within $5,000 of the sales price.
• 37 homes (27 percent) had a Zestimate® that was within $2,500 of the sales price.
• 16 Pasco homes (12 percent) sold with a Zestimate® that was within $1,000 of the sales price.

Most & Least Inaccurate Pasco Zestimates®

Among the 126 Pasco home sales/Zestimates® we recorded, the most egregiously wrong Zestimates® were:

• A home sold in March with a Zestimate® that was $78,240 less than the actual sales price — the most inaccurate Zestimate® by dollar amount.
• The same home had the most inaccurate Zestimate® by percent — 58 percent lower than the actual sales price.

The least inaccurate (or most accurate) Zestimate® was a home that sold in April for just $37 more than the Zestimate®.

Monthly Trends

The Zestimates® for Pasco homes don’t show any clear trends. The percentage of Zestimates® that were wrong by at least 5 percent dropped by about half between February and May, but Zestimates® at least 10 percent wrong more than doubled.

(Note: For monthly trends, we’re not including January and June because we don’t have a full month of data for either.)

Navigation

1. Zillow vs Reality: Introduction
2. Zillow vs. Reality: Key Takeaways
3. Zillow vs. Reality: All Tri-Cities Zestimates®
4. Zillow vs. Reality: Kennewick Zestimates®
5. Zillow vs. Reality: Pasco Zestimates® (this page)
6. Zillow vs. Reality: Richland Zestimates®
7. Zillow vs. Reality: West Richland Zestimates®
8. Zillow vs. Reality: Home Value Comparisons
9. Our Methodology