I had a theory a while ago that the lower end of the market was collapsing, leading to fewer overall sales but not an enormous decrease in our average sales amount.
Let’s take a look at August in ’06, ’07 and ’08, and compare sales in the $0-$99,999 (A) range, the $100,000-$124,999 (B) range and $125,000 – $149,999 (C) range.
The SOLD numbers really reflect business in July, because things written in July close in August. The percentage given is the portion of the entire market reflected in sales in that price point.
’06 ’07 ’08
A – 9% 11% 9%
B – 9% 6% 12%
C -17% 17% 20%
So, there goes that theory. Under contracts, which are deals written in August, closing in Spetember tell a slightly different story, however.
’06 ’07 ’08
A -10% 16% 15%
B -13% 11% 8%
C -18% 22% 17%
But I don’t think the numbers are THAT significant. I guess I am looking for a dramatic, sweeping change in numbers across all ranges, and I don’t see that.